The volume of world merchandise trade grew 1% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, reported the World Trade Organization (WTO).

This indicator is measured by the average of global imports and exports.

Preliminary statistics for the first quarter of 2024 show a rebound in the volume of world merchandise trade, with the referenced result equating to a 3.9% annualized rise. 

This growth is broadly in line with current WTO trade forecasts. 

While European exports and imports remained weak, trade in other regions grew more strongly. 

Overall, trade has been remarkably resilient despite increasing global trade tensions.

World trade volume

The WTO projects average imports and exports to rebound gradually over the next two years after a larger-than-expected decline in 2023, driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation. 

According to the WTO’s most recent forecast, dated April 10, 2024, the volume of world merchandise trade will increase 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, following a contraction of 1.2% in 2023. 

The outlook for commercial services trade is also positive, especially for trade in digitally delivered services, the value of which increased 51% between 2019 and 2023. 

The global economy continued to recover gradually during the review period. 

GDP

Output grew at a moderate pace in the world’s major economies in the first quarter. 

Annualized quarterly GDP growth in the United States slowed to 1.3% in Q1 2024 from 3.4% in Q4 2023, but remained positive. 

GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded to 1.3% in Q1 2024 from 0.0% in Q4 2023, while growth in China accelerated to 6.6% from 4.9%. 

Lower inflation in advanced economies should allow central banks to cut interest rates over time, boosting consumption and import demand.