Sugar production in Mexico will grow at a year-on-year rate of 8% in the 2024-2025 season (October-September), to 1 million tons of raw value, according to projections released by the U.S. Department of Commerce (USDA).

Why the increase? Favorable weather conditions and seasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing regions. 

Sugar production in Mexico

Late rains in the 2023/24 marketing year, which will occur between October 2023 and January 2024, are expected to alleviate some of the effects of the drought. In addition, seasonal rains expected for the 2024/25 marketing year, which will begin in July 2024 and continue through November, will also help. 

Thus, it is estimated that the combination of these two rainfall periods will reduce much of the lingering effects of the drought of the previous two years.

This could result in higher sugarcane production per hectare. 

In addition, higher sucrose levels in the cane are expected, which would increase yields in the 2024/25 marketing year. 

However, if rains extend beyond November, this could reduce sucrose levels. As a result, yields would decrease and harvest would be delayed. 

The USDA estimates that for the 2024/25 marketing year, 780,000 hectares will be harvested, with a production of 48.4 million metric tons of cane and a yield of 62.05 tons per hectare. 

The final production result will depend on stable weather during growth and efficient milling, and the National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane (CONADESUCA) is expected to publish its official forecast in November.

Exports

In recent years, external sugar sales from Mexico have fluctuated between 470,000 and 2 million 316,000 tons.

This is the trend, with each year corresponding to the end of the season (September) and in thousands of tons:

• 2018: 1,195
• 2019: 2,316
• 2020: 1,288
• 2021: 1,167
• 2022: 1,741
• 2023: 1,100
• 2024: 470
• 2025: 1,000

Of the total estimated exports for the 2024-2025 cycle, for 1 million tons, 300,000 correspond to refined sugar.