If current assumptions hold, world merchandise trade will increase 2.7% in 2024, slightly above the previous forecast of 2.6% last April, according to projections by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Asia’s exports will grow faster than those of any other region this year.
World merchandise trade
These are the estimated growth rates by region:
- Asia: 7.4 percent.
- Middle East: 4.7 percent.
- South America: 4.6 percent.
- CIS: 4.5 percent.
- Africa: 2.5 percent.
- North America: 2.1 percent.
- Europe: -1.4 percent.
In a report released Thursday, the WTO reported that world merchandise trade rebounded in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year rise of 2.3 percent, which should be followed by a moderate expansion for the rest of the year and into 2025.
Merchandise trade by region
On the import side, the WTO predicted that the fastest growing region will be the Middle East.
The following are the projected growth by region:
- Middle East: 9.0 percent.
- South America: 5.6 percent.
- Asia: 4.3 percent.
- North America: 3.3 percent,
- CIS: 1.1 percent.
- Africa: 1.0 percent.
- Europe: -2.3 percent.
The current forecast is based on global market-weighted GDP growth of 2.7% in 2024 (slightly higher than the 2.6% forecast in April).
Economic growth will be fastest in Asia (4.0%), followed by the CIS region (3.8%), Africa (3.3%), North America (2.4%), the Middle East (1.9%), South America (1.8%) and Europe (1.1 percent).
In 2025, global GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7%, while world trade growth is expected to pick up slightly to 3.0%, due in part to the EU’s lagging positive contribution to world trade.
Asia is expected to lead other regions in export growth (4.7%) and import growth (5.1 percent).
All regions should see trade flows increase in 2025 in volume terms, except for a small decline in exports from South America (-0.1 percent) and a larger decline in imports from the Middle East (-1.1 percent).