The United States and Brazil represent two of the world’s leading markets for agricultural input sales.

In total, the agricultural input market for these two nations exceeded $110 billion in 2023. Moreover, this figure is almost equally distributed between the two economies.

To note: the value represents total market sales of seeds, fertilizers and plant protection products.

Agricultural Input Sales

If sales to Canada and Australia are added together, the amount rises to $130 billion.

By region, this sales volume was distributed as follows, according to data from the following sources: USDA, StatsCan, ABARES, Conab, IMEA, AgbioInvestor and Nutrien:

• United States: 43%.
• Brazil: 42%.
• Australia: 10%.
• Canada: 5%.

From the Nutrien angle, weather and geopolitical issues will continue to affect grain and oilseed production, exports and inventory levels. 

Crop prices have declined from historically high levels in 2022, but lower crop input prices have resulted in improved demand, evidenced by the strong fall application season in North America in 2023. 

Below are agricultural input sales by type:

• Seeds: 22%.
• Nutrients: 49%.
• Protection: 29%.

Outlook

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a slight decline in world coarse grains production for the 2024/25 cycle, estimated at 1.5 billion tons. This decline is due to several factors affecting global production.

As for the outlook for foreign coarse grains, last year’s November projections indicate an increase in production, albeit with a decrease in trade and a reduction in ending stocks compared to the previous month.

Foreign maize production is expected to be higher, with increases in countries such as Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya, and Cameroon. However, these increases will be partially offset by declines in countries such as Mexico, Turkey, and the European Union. In Mexico, the reduction in production is due to expectations of a smaller area of winter corn.

With respect to barley, foreign production will experience a reduction, mainly due to a drop in Russia, although this decline is partially offset by an increase in Kazakhstan.

In terms of world trade, corn exports are projected to decline for Brazil and South Africa, while Burma and Uganda will see increases. Corn imports will also decrease for China and Malawi, but will increase in Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey and Peru. Finally, a drop in barley exports is expected for Russia.