Oil exports from Canada and Mexico to the United States (crude oil) totaled 101.454 billion dollars in the first 11 months of 2024.

During this period, Canada was the leading external supplier of oil to the US market. Mexico was a distant second.

While Canada’s oil exports to its southern neighbor amounted to 90.201 billion dollars, Mexico’s corresponding exports totaled 11.253 billion dollars.

Oil exports from Canada and Mexico

U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed his intention to apply a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada starting this Saturday. This, unless both countries collaborate in resolving issues related to fentanyl trafficking and immigration.

During a conversation with reporters this Friday at the White House, Trump mentioned a possible exemption for Canadian oil, suggesting that the tariff rate would be 10%, instead of the 25% planned for other Canadian imports. However, he clarified that higher tariffs on oil and natural gas would begin to apply in mid-February. These comments triggered a spike in oil prices.

For the sake of hindsight, crude oil exports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. market are shown below, in millions of dollars, according to Department of Commerce statistics:

Canada

• 2018: 60,821.
• 2019: 62,705.
• 2020: 42,678.
• 2021: 75,959.
• 2022: 113,437.
• 2023: 92,511.
• 2024 (January-November): 90,201.

Mexico

• 2018: 14,173.
• 2019: 12,046.
• 2020: 8,679.
• 2021: 13,059.
• 2022: 20,726.
• 2023: 19,781.
• 2024 (January-November): 11,253.

Trump’s Tariffs

According to a U.S. congressional analysis, U.S. tariffs would increase the cost of imported goods subject to tariffs. If a tariff were applied to crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico, refiners that continue to purchase from these countries would pay tariffs on the value of those imports. 

However, some refiners may prefer to purchase crude oil not subject to higher tariffs. This option complicates the prediction of how tariffs would affect crude oil and petroleum product prices in the United States. 

The exact impact would depend on the decisions of refiners, crude oil producers in Canada and the Alberta government. Tariffs could influence refining profits, Canadian oil prices and the costs of petroleum products in the United States.