The United States and Brazil compete for the rice market in Mexico, occupying the top positions among its main external suppliers.
In 2024, U.S. exports of this product to Mexico reached a record US$443 million.
In turn, the corresponding shipments from Brazil were US$15 million, although in the two previous years these sales were higher: US$154 million in 2022 and US$120 million in 2023.
Rice market in Mexico
Tariff-free access to certain markets improves the competitiveness of U.S. rice. Mexico, its largest export destination, offers this advantage thanks to the USMCA.
Here is the sequence of U.S. rice exports to Mexico, in millions of dollars, according to Commerce Department data:
- 2018: 268.
- 2019: 278.
- 2020: 245.
- 2021: 306.
- 2022: 219.
- 2023: 278.
- 2024: 443.
Brazilian competition
However, an analysis by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) indicates that the elimination of tariffs for other countries, such as Brazil, has reduced U.S. participation in this market.
Between 2018 and 2023, Mexico became the main buyer of Brazilian rice. Exports grew rapidly from zero to 447,000 tons in 2022. This increase occurred because the Mexican government temporarily eliminated the 9% tariff for certain trading partners as part of its anti-inflationary strategy.
Brazil competes in paddy and milled rice exports, mainly in Mexico and Central America. Although its production costs are high, its mechanized system allows it to maintain competitive prices vis-à-vis the United States. However, high transportation costs can affect its competitiveness in both the domestic and export markets.
Brazilian rice exports to the U.S. market are shown below, in millions of dollars, according to data from the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade:
- 2020: 30.
- 2021: 8.
- 2022: 154.
- 2023: 120.
- 2024: 15.
Although rice is one of the most widely grown crops, less than 10% of global production was traded between 2018 and 2023.
Some countries contributed a small share of global production, but a larger share of exports. For example, the United States produced only 1% of global rice, but accounted for 5% of exports.
In contrast, other countries produced much more rice than they exported. China, for example, contributed 29% of global production, but only 4% of exports.