World GDP will grow 2.3% in 2025, projected the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Thus, although global economic growth in 2024 slightly exceeded forecasts and reached 2.8%, a slowdown is expected.
According to UNCTAD, global GDP will grow by only 2.3% in 2025. This figure is below the 2.5% threshold, suggesting a possible recessionary phase at the global level.
World GDP
A considerable slowdown is observed when compared to average annual growth rates prior to the pandemic. That period, moreover, already showed moderate global growth.
For 2025, the economic outlook is marked by increasing political uncertainty.
In fact, at the beginning of 2025, this level of uncertainty was the highest recorded so far this century.
From Petrobras’ perspective, the world economy showed remarkable resilience. This occurred despite facing complex challenges. Among them, geopolitical conflicts, extreme weather events, and supply chain disruptions stand out.
However, Petrobras believes that significant risks persist. For example, rising tensions in the Middle East could curb oil supply. This, in turn, would raise global inflation. In addition, the advance of protectionism and trade conflicts threatens to break logistics chains. This could make products more expensive and slow economic growth.
On the other hand, public debt remains a concern. It mainly affects low-income countries and emerging markets.
The environment
Climate shocks and extreme weather events could lead to economic disruptions and inflation spikes.
Economic activity depends on the stability of natural systems. More than half of the world’s GDP ($58 trillion) is moderately or highly dependent on nature and is exposed to significant risks due to the declining reliability of natural ecosystems.
The World Bank estimates that global GDP could fall by $2.7 trillion in 2030 compared to the baseline scenario in the event of a partial collapse of ecosystems.
Finally, there is the risk of volatility in financial markets and possible turbulence in capital flows or exchange rates in emerging economies.