Mexico would increase its sugar production 19% in the 2020-2021 cycle, to 6.5 million tons, projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Meanwhile, the USDA expects Mexico’s consumption to grow slightly as it faces many challenges, ranging from a weak economy that affects consumer purchasing power to new labeling on the front of the package for products that exceed critical thresholds of certain nutrients (for example, fats, sugars, sodium, etc.) that can lead to adverse health conditions).

Exports, forecast at 717,000 tons higher, are projected at the expected level of United States needs, as defined in the modified suspension agreements, plus exports to other markets. He also hopes that inventories will not change.

Sugar production in the world

Globally, the USDA forecasts that production for the 2020-2021 business year will increase 22 million tons to 188 million tons (gross value) due to higher production in Brazil, India and Thailand.

At the same time, it expects consumption to rise to a new record due to growth in markets such as India and that inventories will continue to decline despite a rebound in production.

The USDA also anticipates a sharp increase in exports with increasing supplies

In particular, he predicts that Brazil’s production will rebound 9.6 million tons, to 39.5 million, since the initial concerns about the dry period of August-October in 2019 were offset by the constant rain from January to March that improved the cane harvest of sugar.

Low gasoline prices are expected to dramatically change the dynamics of the Brazilian sugar / ethanol industry, negatively affecting the ethanol industry and significantly increasing sugar production.

Approximately 46% of the sugarcane harvest is estimated to be processed for sugar and 54% for ethanol, compared to last year’s 35 and 65% split. Consumption is expected to remain unchanged and stocks to decline, while exports are forecast to increase with the increased supplies available.