The Manufacturing IMEF Indicator increased 4.4 points in June to stand at 42.0 units and remain in the contraction zone for the fourteenth consecutive month
For its measurement, the IMEF Indicator varies in an interval from 0 to 100 points and the level of 50 points represents the threshold between an expansion (greater than 50) and a contraction (less than 50), of economic activity.
For the information required, the IMEF sent a questionnaire to its members via the Internet; The indicators derived from it (IMEF-IG, IMEF-AT and levels of each of its components) are disseminated with great opportunity, since they are published on the first business day of the month following the reference month.
For its part, the IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator registered an increase of 4.4 points in June, closing at 42.5 units and placing itself in a contraction zone for the fifth consecutive month.
IMEF and methodology
The figures for both indicators during the first half of the year are consistent with an unprecedented recession. While June’s figures suggest a significant improvement in both indices, these are falling below their historical lows.
Based on this, and in the analysis of the most recent economic situation indicators, as well as the evolution of Covid-19 statistics in Mexico and in the world, it is premature to conclude that the worst of the pandemic recession has already occurred. past, «said the Institute.
The Indicator is a diffusion index that evaluates the economic environment based on a survey of five qualitative questions. In particular, it is built to help anticipate the direction of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity in Mexico and from the expected evolution of these sectors, infer the possible evolution of the overall economy in the short term.
In principle, when the index is above the threshold, an increase is interpreted as a sign of a faster future expansion; when the index falls below the threshold, an increase signal is interpreted as a slower contraction future. However, the indicator does not provide specific information on the magnitude of the expected changes.
The sample to which the questionnaire is applied to generate the IMEF indicators is small, but it is possible that the informants are especially well qualified to report on your company.
It should also be noted that it is not probabilistic, since it is based primarily on a membership directory, so that the sectoral composition is more reflective of the sectoral composition of the membership of the IMEF that the structure of the economy showing the Economic Census or national accounts.
