UNCTAD projects that the volume of international maritime trade will fall 4.1% in 2020.

In a report released on Thursday, it warns that new waves of the pandemic that further disrupt supply chains and economies could cause a steeper decline.

The pandemic has triggered shockwaves across supply chains, shipping networks and ports, causing cargo volumes to plummet and dampening prospects for growth, he says.

According to the report, the short-term outlook for maritime trade is bleak. Predicting the long-term impact of the pandemic, as well as the timing and scale of the industry’s recovery, is fraught with uncertainties.

«The global shipping industry will be at the forefront of efforts towards a sustainable recovery, as a vital enabler of the smooth functioning of international supply chains,» said UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi.

«The industry must be a key player in helping to adapt ‘just-in-time efficiency’ logistics to ‘just in case’ readiness,» he added.

Maritime trade

UNCTAD expects maritime trade growth to return to positive territory and expand 4.8% in 2021, assuming global economic output recovers.

But it highlights the need for the shipping industry to brace itself for change and be well prepared for a transformed post-COVID-19 world.