The government of Quebec, Canada, forecasts that delivery capacity in shipping globally is unlikely to ease in 2022.
New vessels have already been ordered in 2021, but will not be delivered until 2023, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Additionally, the International Maritime Organization’s new decarbonization rule for shipping, which will take effect in January 2023, will force ships from the Organization’s member states to slow down, according to IHS Markit.
In hindsight, the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent response measures have resulted in significant economic losses.
In 2020, world GDP fell 3.3% and world GDP per capita fell 6.2%, the most severe recession since World War II.
By comparison, world GDP fell about 0.6% during the 2008-09 recession.
IMF forecasts point to global economic growth rebounding to 5.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022, an upward revision to forecasts thanks to vaccines and additional political support in some large economies.
Shipping
The Québec government stated that one of the reasons for the interruptions is the strong recovery in demand for shipments.
After the impact of the pandemic, in 2020, world merchandise trade has caught up to pre-pandemic levels during the last quarter of the year, putting pressure on shipping costs.
On the other hand, the shortage of containers and labor, bad weather and, especially, the Covid-19 that affected some Asian countries such as Malaysia and China, limited delivery capacity and increased delays, according to some experts.
According to the Asian Development Bank, transportation disruptions were exacerbated by the closure of the Suez Canal in March, the partial closure of ports in China between June and August following the discovery of Covid-19 cases among workers and the typhoon. that affected the region during the same period.
Some analysts anticipate continued supply restrictions, despite declining demand.
In fact, there is significant congestion at the US ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as the number of vessels waiting to unload reached an all-time high in September 2021.
