China remained the leader in global value-added manufacturing in 2024, with a 27 percent share.
This share grew by 18 percentage points over the past two decades, from 9 percent in 2004.
Value-added manufacturing
China remains the world’s largest manufacturer. According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), the Chinese government seeks to expand its country’s manufacturing sector. This will lead to greater industrial overcapacity and an increase in exports. Over the past decade, Chinese manufacturers have improved in quality and reliability. This is due, in part, to increased enforcement of standards by the authorities and tighter control by foreign companies.
However, the USCC believes that the scale and dynamism of manufacturing in China makes it difficult for regulators in the United States to respond to emerging product safety issues. In addition, from their perspective, new online platforms and the growing number of e-commerce vendors and resellers exacerbate the situation.
This is the trend in China’s share of global value-added manufacturing, according to World Bank data:.
- 2004: 9.
- 2005: 9.
- 2006: 11.
- 2007: 12.
- 2008: 14.
- 2009: 17.
- 2010: 18.
- 2011: 21.
- 2012: 22.
- 2013: 24.
- 2014: 25.
- 2015: 26.
- 2016: 25.
- 2017: 26.
- 2018: 27.
- 2019: 27.
- 2020: 28.
- 2021: 30.
- 2022: 30.
- 2023: 29.
- 2024: 27.
International trade
Since 1995, with the creation of the WTO, and following China’s accession in 2001, world trade has grown significantly. This growth has boosted the global economy. During this time, the share of trade in the economy has increased. At the same time, average tariffs have decreased.
However, in recent years, world trade has split into two blocs. On the one hand, China leads the Eastern bloc. On the other hand, the United States leads the Western bloc. This fragmentation has intensified since the start of the war in Ukraine. In addition, since 2018, the United States has imposed tariffs on numerous Chinese products. In 2024, along with Canada and the European Union, it raised tariffs on electric vehicles of Chinese origin.
For the Quebec government, this trade reconfiguration could bring major consequences. Among them, an increase in costs and risks for businesses. It could also affect the energy transition, slow economic recovery in emerging markets and weaken the resilience of supply chains.