Corn consumption and production in Mexico will increase from the 2023-2024 season to the 2024-2025 season, which concludes at the end of September, according to forecasts by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
On the one hand, corn consumption for the 2024/2025 cycle is estimated at 47.3 million metric tons, 1% more than the previous season, driven by the animal feed sector.
Human consumption is expected to remain stable due to inflation and high tortilla prices, whose per capita consumption in Mexico is 85 kg.
For the USDA, the projected sequence of consumption is as follows:
- 2022-2023: 46 million tons.
- 2023-2024: 46.8 million tons.
- 2024-2025: 47.3 million tons.
Corn consumption and production
Between December 2018 and May 2024, tortilla prices increased 58% in Mexico.
In the 2023/2024 season, corn consumption was 46.8 million metric tons, with 22.7 million covered by domestic production, while the livestock sector and the starch industry consumed 22.5 million, of which 89% came from imports.
Drought
Corn production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to increase 10% year-over-year, reaching 25 million metric tons.
According to the National Agrifood Statistics Agency (SIAP), planting intentions are higher, but drought and higher input costs could limit planted area.
Despite this, farmers are optimistic due to the projected increase in corn prices.
Although production is expected to increase, it will be the second lowest in a decade.
Here is how the USDA projects corn production in Mexico:
- 2022-2023: 28.077 million tons.
- 2023-2024: 22.7 million tons.
- 2024-2025: 25 million tons.
As for international trade in the 2022-2023 cycle, imports to Mexico were 19 million 359,000 tons.
The USDA predicts that this volume will grow to 22.2 million in the 2023-2024 season and then to 22.2 million tons in the 2024-2025 season.
Conversely, Mexican exports of this cereal are expected to drop from 50,000 tons in 2022-2023 to 30,000 tons in each of the next two cycles.