Corn production in Sinaloa accounts for the production of one out of every four tortillas in Mexico, noted Julio Berdegué, Secretary of Agriculture.
In general, Mexico produces many of its most important foods in the north. White corn is among them.
“Last season we lost half of the area of Sinaloa, where one out of every four corn tortillas (sic) in this country is produced,” Berdegué lamented, ‘And this year we are going to lose half of the half and that is where 25% of our supply depends on,’ he added.
Corn production in Sinaloa
From Berdegué’s perspective, Mexico needs a territorial reorganization. This is a major challenge. The country needs to produce more agricultural products in the south-southeast, but this implies developing more infrastructure: highways, roads, railroads… All this entails high financial flows and mechanisms to establish agreements.
“We don’t have the state capacity to do this,” Berdegué acknowledged, while participating in a workshop at the Ministry of Economy.
Agricultural perspective
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that Mexico will produce 23.3 million metric tons of corn in the 2024/2025 marketing year. This represents a 1% drop versus the 2023/2024 season.
The forecast is due to prolonged droughts and low reservoir levels in Sinaloa. In addition, a 13% reduction in planted area during the fall/winter cycle is anticipated.
On the other hand, the USDA anticipates a 6% increase in corn in the spring/summer cycle. However, the decline in fall/winter corn is expected to affect total production.
In the 2023/2024 marketing year, USDA projects production of 23.5 million tons. Such a volume implies a 16% annual decline due to persistent drought across the country.
Despite the increase in corn prices, they remain low compared to previous years, which discourages production.
According to the Sinaloa State Plant Health Committee (CESAVESIN), as of January 13, the authorized area for planting white corn was 160,304 hectares. This represents an annual decrease of 26 percent.
Other products
Some farmers decided to plant dry beans, chickpeas and sorghum on land previously used for corn. These crops require less water.
The officially registered area receives water allocations and government support. However, the actual area planted is often larger. This is because some farmers irrigate with water from local aquifers and small volumes supplied by local authorities.
According to sources, the transition to La Niña in the early months of 2025 could exacerbate irrigation restrictions.