The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) economic outlook for Brazil for 2024 and 2025 considers growth of 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively.
On August 11, 2023, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva presented the new growth acceleration program, known as PAC.
This program promises to invest R$ 1.7 trillion in all Brazilian states.
Of this amount, R$ 1.4 trillion will be allocated between 2023 and 2026. The remaining R$ 0.3 billion will be invested after 2026.
As for investments, these will be divided as follows: first, R$ 371 billion will come from the federal government; second, R$ 343 billion from state-owned companies; third, R$ 362 billion from financing; and, finally, R$ 612 billion from the private sector.
The objective of the PAC is clear: to promote ecological transition, neo-industrialization, inclusive growth and environmental sustainability.
Economic outlook for Brazil
Brazil’s GDP growth has shown this trend, including its near-term IMF predictions:
- 2022: 3.0
- 2023: 2.9
- 2024: 2.1
- 2025: 2.4
On January 22, 2024, the President signed the annual budget law for 2024, totaling approximately R$ 5.5 trillion.
In addition, the Budget Guidelines Law for 2024 established a primary deficit of R$ 13.31 billion, equivalent to 0.12% of estimated GDP.
The law also contemplates inflation of 3.55% and real GDP growth of 2.19% for 2024.
However, according to the most recent Revenue and Expenditure Report, published in May 2024, the Federal Government now expects inflation of 3.70% and GDP growth of 2.45% in 2024.
Therefore, the Central Government’s target for the primary result in the 2024 budget is 0% of GDP.
Brazilian economy
In May 2024, the Federal Government predicted that the economy would grow by 2.5% for that year.
These estimates do not take into account the impact of the emergency in Rio Grande do Sul on economic activity.
The government also projected inflation of 3.7% for 2024. However, it cannot be certain that these predictions will come true, and it is likely that the results will be different than expected.