The OECD projects that growth in China will remain close to its pre-pandemic trajectory, as commodity exporters are benefiting from high export prices and strong global demand for goods.
However, real household incomes in emerging markets have been affected by rising food and energy prices, and the risks of new virus outbreaks remain high in many countries where vaccination rates are high. low.
The OECD estimated the following economic growth: Mexico (6.3%), Turkey (8.4%), Argentina (7.6%), Brazil (5.2%), India (9.7%) and China (8.5%).
From an OECD perspective, the scope is limited to provide substantial policy support in some countries, particularly where inflationary pressures are already increasing and official interest rates have been raised to stabilize expectations.
The risk of lasting costs from the pandemic also persists.
The OECD projects that the pre-pandemic trajectory production deficit by the end of 2022 in the G20 median emerging market economy will be double that of the G20 median advanced economy, and particularly high in India and Indonesia.
Supply chain and cost pressures are pushing up trade prices
Export
A key short-term uncertainty is the extent to which the Delta variant increases the risks of persistent shutdowns in some Asian economies, with subsequent adverse consequences for the availability of supplies and the pace of the global recovery.
There are already general increases in export prices for many key Asian economies, reflecting both rising input costs as a result of higher global commodity prices, as well as capacity constraints and supply interruptions.
This is reflected in rising import prices elsewhere, amplified by the tripling of global shipping costs this year.
The OECD indicated that greater international efforts are needed to provide low-income countries with the resources necessary to vaccinate their populations for their own and global benefit. These include the provision of vaccines and assistance to help overcome national logistical obstacles to vaccine deployment.
Effective multilateral action is also required to share knowledge, medical and financial resources, and avoid harmful bans on trade.
Such bans would be counterproductive given the strong cross-border links in the supply chains for vaccines and medical devices.
