The industrial recession in the United States has accumulated 18 months, highlighted Luis de la Calle, CEO of De la Calle, Madrazo, Mancera Consulting (CMM).

At an annual rate, industrial production registered a 0.64% drop, falling for the third consecutive month and the deepest since April of this year.

“The United States has had an industrial recession for the last 18 months. The question is why Mexico has not had an industrial recession, if the United States has,” De la Calle asked himself while participating in a seminar at the Colegio de México.

Industrial recession in the United States

Before answering, De la Calle referred that the U.S. economy has grown for other reasons, because of public spending, consumption and investment, but not in the industrial part.

“The reason is because Mexico gained market share in the United States,” he said in reference to Mexico’s share as the origin of imports of products to the U.S. market.

In September, U.S. industrial production fell 0.28% from the previous month.

With September’s result, U.S. industrial production has shown annual contractions in seven of the nine months of 2024. With respect to its pre-pandemic level, industrial production shows an expansion of only 0.95%, according to Banco Base.

Mexican Industry

Mexico’s Monthly Industrial Activity Indicator (IMAI) for September 2024 showed growth of 0.60%. This is the highest rate since May 2024. However, the indicator reflected an annual contraction of 0.01%, representing the first drop since February 2021. Until August, industrial activity had accumulated 43 consecutive months of annual increases.

On the other hand, Banco Base highlighted that a large part of Mexico’s industrial growth in 2023 was related to the increase in public investment. This increase sought to complete President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s flagship infrastructure works. As a result, civil engineering construction showed remarkable growth, reaching an annual rate of 112.94% in October 2023.