Mexico‘s GDP growth will be 2% in 2024, according to UNCTAD projections and 2.4% according to IMF estimates.

From UNCTAD’s perspective, Mexico benefited from the resilience of the U.S. economy in 2023, although the drop in oil prices contributed to a current account deficit and negatively affected government revenues. 

The government prioritized containing the deficit, while the central bank raised interest rates early in the inflationary cycle, before beginning to cut them in early 2024. 

Against this backdrop, UNCTAD predicts that the Mexican economy will grow at a moderate 2% in 2024.

Mexico’s GDP

For its part, the IMF estimates that the Mexican economy will grow 2.4 percent in 2024, supported by fiscal expansion, before slowing to 1.4 percent in 2025, as the government is expected to tighten fiscal policy. The forecast for Mexico is revised downward due to weaker-than-expected results for late 2023 and early 2024, with a contraction in manufacturing.

In 2023, the Mexican economy linked three years of growth above its historical average by registering an annual growth rate of 3.2%. 

In fact, since the third quarter of 2022, GDP has consecutively surpassed the historical maximum in each quarter, a situation that had not been observed in the last eight years. 

However, in the fourth quarter of 2023 there was a deceleration with respect to the previous quarter, such that its growth rate was the lowest of the year. 

Relocation

According to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), the economy’s performance was due to high levels of investment, in an environment of macroeconomic, political and social stability, which continues to generate high business confidence. 

Private investment alone grew 19.5% in 2023, the highest rate since 1996, when records began. 

This momentum was also generated by changes in global trends in commercial exchange and the phenomenon of company relocation. 

Meanwhile, public investment linked two years with growth, derived from the effect of public works for oil refining and increased connectivity in the south-southeast region of the country.