In 2023, stainless steel production in China accounted for 42% of total primary nickel demand, according to information from Vale. 

Consequently, changes in Chinese stainless steel production have a major impact on global nickel demand. 

In fact, stainless steel is a key driver of nickel demand, especially in China.

Importantly, stainless steel is a corrosion-resistant alloy composed primarily of iron, with a minimum of 10.5% chromium content by mass. 

In addition, the addition of chromium allows the steel to form a passive chromium oxide layer on its surface, which prevents further corrosion and oxidation.

Stainless steel

In terms of production, Vale reported that Chinese stainless steel production recorded a 10% year-on-year increase in 2023, in contrast to a 2% decrease in 2022. 

This growth was due to capacity additions at smelters and the reopening of the Chinese economy after the pandemic shutdowns, albeit at a slower pace than expected.

Nickel

While stainless steel production is an important driver of global nickel demand, producers can source nickel with different nickel contents, including secondary (scrap) nickel.

As for nickel, historically, Chinese domestic nickel pig iron production has accounted for most of the growth in global nickel supply, using unprocessed ore from the Philippines and Indonesia. 

However, Chinese nickel pig iron production was negatively affected by the restriction on the export of unprocessed ore from Indonesia, which resumed in 2020. 

As a result, Indonesia emerged as the largest nickel pig iron producer.

In 2023, about 12% of the world’s primary nickel supply was produced as nickel pig iron in China. 

On the other hand, about 39% of the world’s primary nickel supply was produced as nickel pig iron in Indonesia, and much of this was directly integrated into stainless steel production.

Finally, nickel is a metal traded on the London Metal Exchange and, as of 2015, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.