The arrival of Donald Trump as President of the United States has generated uncertainty in international trade, according to a report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

In the opinion of this agency, the protectionist policies anticipated by Trump for his second term are part of the factors that make the outlook for world trade “very uncertain” for 2025. 

In his most recent campaign, Trump proposed setting a base tariff of 10-20% on all U.S. imports of goods.

Trump also proposed implementing tariffs of 60% or more on U.S. imports of goods originating in China. 

Uncertainty in international trade 

On the eve of the election, Trump made a blunt promise. He announced that he would set a 25% tariff on all imports of products from Mexico. In addition, he stated that this tax could increase up to 100% if necessary. This measure, according to him, will depend on President Claudia Sheinbaum stopping what he described as an “avalanche of criminals and drugs” into the United States.

Now as president-elect, Trump changed his threats. He stated that, on his first day in office, he would impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Mexico and Canada. At the same time, he announced an additional 10% tariff on products from China. He explained that these measures are intended to address concerns related to illegal immigration and the illicit drug trade.

Tariffs

From UNCTAD’s perspective, changes in the U.S. trade policy stance are a source of global concern. The United States is expected to adopt a more protectionist trade policy. 

In this context, new tariffs could be applied more generally and not limited to specific products. 

Furthermore, these measures could impact both geopolitical adversaries and key trading partners. This includes, most notably, those with high tariffs and significant trade surpluses with the United States. 

Even minor adjustments in U.S. tariffs would generate considerable effects on global trade dynamics. This is due to the role of the United States as a crucial consumer market and the interconnectedness of cross-border value chains.