Venezuelan migrants dominate encounters at the southern border of the United States, according to a U.S. congressional analysis.

President-elect Donald Trump has stated that if Mexico does not take effective action to attack the problem of immigration to the United States, he will authorize a 25% tariff on imports of Mexican products.

Venezuelan migrants

Historically, migrants entering Mexico came mainly from Central America‘s Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras). 

But since the Covid-19 pandemic, the number of migrants entering Mexico from regions beyond Central America has increased. In 2023 and through August 2024, Mexican authorities detained more migrants from South America (mainly Venezuela) than from Central America.

According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border dropped 75% from December 2023 to November 2024.

“Your starting point is not a crisis or a number, if it were the other way around we would be very concerned; but your margin for how this can be the best it can be is quite high. So, that is your counterpart’s top priority and that is what interests him the most and that is what we can help with the most,” said Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Economy.

Data

In FY2022 and FY2023, CBP reported a record number of migrant encounters at the southwest border, raising concerns in Congress. 

In June 2024, a new U.S. policy limiting access to asylum, combined with enforcement efforts in Mexico, contributed to a decline in encounters. 

And, in FY2024, encounters totaled 2.1 million, down from 2.5 million the previous year. Mexican nationals accounted for approximately 35% of CBP encounters in FY2024. 

Former Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (2018-2024) worked with the Trump and Biden administrations on migration management. President Claudia Sheinbaum is reportedly developing plans to respond to the changes in U.S. policies that President-elect Trump has pledged to make.