World export orders recovered in January 2025, according to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Last January, the export orders index stood at 101.0 points. This is a sub-indicator of the Merchandise Trade Barometer.

Barometer values above 100 indicate growing merchandise trade. This means that trade volumes are above trend. Conversely, when values fall below 100, they suggest a decline in trade. In addition, they signal that trade activity has declined or could decline in the near future. 

World export orders

The barometer is published quarterly, depending on data availability. The overall index and its component indices measure short-term deviations from recent (i.e., medium-term) trends. Recent trends serve as the benchmark for each index, which is normalized to 100.

Purchasing managers’ indices (PMI) accurately reflect the current state of the global economy. They are based on business surveys and provide real-time information. In addition, the component of new export orders serves as a key indicator for the short-term outlook for trade.

Export orders act as an advance benchmark for world trade. In fact, they are published before the WTO’s quarterly trade volume data, making it possible to anticipate trends.

International trade

The seasonally adjusted Global PMI New Export Orders Index, sponsored by JP Morgan and compiled by S&P Global, rose to 49.8 in February 2025 from 49.6 in January 2025.

The WTO uses the JP Morgan indicator, but adjusts it within its own index. In this case, 100 marks the historical trend of trade. Although the original data are the same, the threshold varies due to differences in scale and presentation methodology.

These are the results of the indexes that make up the barometer:

• Export orders: 101.0.
• Electronic components: 102.3.
• Raw materials: 101.6.
• Automotive products: 105.5.
• Container transportation: 103.7.
• Air transport: 102.7.