World merchandise exports will grow at an interannual rate of 2% in 2024, projected the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

With this growth, they will amount to 32 trillion 756,000 million dollars.

According to UNCTAD, these data correspond to the outward movement of goods produced in the reporting economy, including imported foreign goods whose value has been significantly transformed or increased in the reporting economy.

World merchandise exports

Economies and financial markets around the world are becoming increasingly interconnected. 

Globally, international trade flows have been affected by the Russia–Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, natural disasters, supply chain disruptions, sanctions against Russia, and the U.S.–China trade war, among other factors.

Below is the trend of world merchandise exports, in billions of dollars:

• 2018: 19,548.
• 2019; 19,008.
• 2020: 17,650.
• 2021: 22,300.
• 2022: 24,893.
• 2023: 23,813.
• 2024 (projection): 24,289.

Thus, if UNCTAD’s forecast proves to be accurate, world merchandise exports would remain below the historical maximum recorded in 2022, of 24.9 trillion dollars.

To note: this value corresponds to Free on Board (FOB) valuation, which means that exports are valued at transaction value, including the cost of transportation and insurance to bring the goods to the border of the exporting country or territory.

UNCTAD’s projection sees world trade maintaining its upward trajectory in the second half of 2024. 

Trade in goods increased by approximately 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. 

Global trade trend

On the other hand, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reported a drop in the volume of world merchandise trade during the fourth quarter of 2022. This decline continued through the fourth quarter of 2023. However, in that last quarter, year-on-year growth turned positive again.

According to the latest WTO trade forecast, released on October 10, world trade is expected to grow 2.7% in 2024. In addition, by 2025, a 3.0 percent increase is forecast.