Tariffs on a set of products announced by the United States will impact world nickel demand over the next three years, according to Australian government projections.
Global consumption of the mineral was 3 million 192,000 tons in 2023.
U.S. tariffs
On May 14, 2024, President Joe Biden’s administration announced the extension of tariffs under Section 301 for imports of the following products:
- Electric vehicles, from 25 percent to 100 percent.
- Certain steel and aluminum products, from 7.5 percent to 25 percent.
- Lithium batteries and critical minerals, from 7.5 to 25 percent.
- Solar panels, from 25 to 50 percent.
These new tariff rates will take effect sometime in 2024.
In addition, U.S. Customs will increase the tariff on semiconductor imports from 25 to 50 percent by 2025.
Although the impacts on China‘s electric vehicle exports could be limited, the tariff increases will have significant effects, according to Australian government forecasts.
In particular, these tariffs will affect stationary storage products and materials.
In addition, the Australian government expects these changes to further boost nickel consumption in the United States. This country was the world’s fourth largest consumer of nickel in 2023.
World nickel demand
Vale notes that the battery market ranks third (15%) in terms of size in global nickel demand.
In particular, global demand for nickel for battery precursors experienced a 9% year-on-year increase in 2023.
This growth is mainly driven by the increase in electric vehicle sales.
However, this increase is notably lower compared to the 39% rise in 2022.
The slowdown in the growth rate is due to two key factors. First, a slower than anticipated economic recovery in China, which is the world’s largest EV market. Second, the end of subsidies for electric vehicles in the region has also influenced this cooling of the market.
This is the global nickel consumption trend projected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in thousands of tons:
- 2023: 3,192.
- 2024: 3,478.
- 2025: 3,530.
- 2026: 3,734.
In 2023, Chinese demand accounted for 62 % of world nickel demand.