The WTO reported that the Barometer on Trade in Goods stood at 103.9 points, indicating a marked improvement in merchandise trade around the world.

Above all, the data stands out because the barometer fell drastically in the first half of last year.

But a further downward shift could come in the short term, the WTO said.

World merchandise trade volume growth remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2020 after trade rebounded in the third quarter from a deep Covid-19-induced decline.

However, the WTO said, the pace of expansion in the fourth quarter is unlikely to be sustained in the first half of 2021, as key leading indicators appear to have peaked.

WTO

In the third quarter of 2020, the seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade recovered from a deep depression in the second quarter, driven by strong exports from Asia to North America and Europe.

Despite the rebound, trade in the third quarter was still down 5.6% compared to the same period in 2019.

While trade volumes are expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter, the outlook for the first quarter of 2021 is highly uncertain due to a growing number of Covid-19 cases, including new variants, the WTO said.

Prospects for merchandise trade largely depend on the evolution of the virus and the spread of effective vaccines.

The WTO Merchandise Trade Barometer of the Organization provides real-time information on the trajectory of world merchandise trade in relation to recent trends.

The barometer component indices are all above trend or trending.

• Export orders (103.4).
• Automotive products (99.8).
• Container transport indices (107.3).
• Air freight (99.4).
• Electronic component indices (105.1).
• Raw materials (106.9).